Some observations & questions for the Learned Pundits here (Mumbai/Thane/Navi Mumbai only)
1.There is a huge supply coming up that will hit the market in a few months time. Just go around Mumbai, Thane, Navi Mumbai. Compare with your memories of these places even 5 years back. Do you remember so many constructions of so huge buildings? I don't.
2. Some builders have started delaying tactics. Many smaller buildings are half constructed with hardly any activity. All kinds of silly reasons are given such as lack of sand, lack of labour,etc. Possessions that were being promised last Diwali are still not complete and handed over. However new bookings are being accepted with alacrity.
3. Some projects are showing progress but VERY SLOW-dunno if this has something to do with reduced bank lending?
4. A lot of loans are due for Rollover in April/May. What if the banks/RBI/HDFC do not allow and ask for payments? Will they sell some flats at lower cost to generate cash?
5.Suddenly over the last few months we are seeing a plethora of Full Page Ads in newspapers about various projects. Signs of desperation to garner cash?
6. A lot of spam emails from brokers and builders about "last chance" and "golden opportunities" to "invest", but mostly from Noida projects, not Mumbai.
7. Reports of brokers being incentivized to sell, sell, sell with double brokerage, Mercedes cars and what not? If there is so much demand why these tactics?
8. A lot of 2G scam money was diverted into RE apparently. This allowed many parties to sustain building and holding without any sales/limited sales. Now with the 2G s*** hitting the fan where will the new money come from? Future bookings?
9. RBI is now raising rates again. What happens to those poor souls who have EMIs of Rs. 50-60K to pay per month? Will they increase?
Will the much publicized increased increments make up the deficit?
10. The Mall Mania is in full force in Thane. The "old malls" have hardly anybody visiting. The latest malls get all the footfalls until...the newer Mall arrives. At that point of time the current "in mall" becomes outcast.
So many closed shops in the malls. What the builder does with them nobody knows/cares.
I think this is just the lull before the storm. June will be the start of the fun. Lets see what happens. As of now this seems to me a gigantic Ponzi scheme, suckering poor dual income slaves into buying bigger houses with bigger EMIs, a scheme for stashing ill gained money and a lot of hype. I do not think this will end happily for many of the participants.
1.There is a huge supply coming up that will hit the market in a few months time. Just go around Mumbai, Thane, Navi Mumbai. Compare with your memories of these places even 5 years back. Do you remember so many constructions of so huge buildings? I don't.
2. Some builders have started delaying tactics. Many smaller buildings are half constructed with hardly any activity. All kinds of silly reasons are given such as lack of sand, lack of labour,etc. Possessions that were being promised last Diwali are still not complete and handed over. However new bookings are being accepted with alacrity.
3. Some projects are showing progress but VERY SLOW-dunno if this has something to do with reduced bank lending?
4. A lot of loans are due for Rollover in April/May. What if the banks/RBI/HDFC do not allow and ask for payments? Will they sell some flats at lower cost to generate cash?
5.Suddenly over the last few months we are seeing a plethora of Full Page Ads in newspapers about various projects. Signs of desperation to garner cash?
6. A lot of spam emails from brokers and builders about "last chance" and "golden opportunities" to "invest", but mostly from Noida projects, not Mumbai.
7. Reports of brokers being incentivized to sell, sell, sell with double brokerage, Mercedes cars and what not? If there is so much demand why these tactics?
8. A lot of 2G scam money was diverted into RE apparently. This allowed many parties to sustain building and holding without any sales/limited sales. Now with the 2G s*** hitting the fan where will the new money come from? Future bookings?
9. RBI is now raising rates again. What happens to those poor souls who have EMIs of Rs. 50-60K to pay per month? Will they increase?
Will the much publicized increased increments make up the deficit?
10. The Mall Mania is in full force in Thane. The "old malls" have hardly anybody visiting. The latest malls get all the footfalls until...the newer Mall arrives. At that point of time the current "in mall" becomes outcast.
So many closed shops in the malls. What the builder does with them nobody knows/cares.
I think this is just the lull before the storm. June will be the start of the fun. Lets see what happens. As of now this seems to me a gigantic Ponzi scheme, suckering poor dual income slaves into buying bigger houses with bigger EMIs, a scheme for stashing ill gained money and a lot of hype. I do not think this will end happily for many of the participants.
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